Brent petrolde bu ay kaydedilecek aylık en büyük kazanca doğru gidiliyor. Piyasalar sert dalgalanırken, arz güvenliği kaygıları ile İran-ABD geriliminin etkisi sürüyor.
Brent crude futures for May delivery, which expire on Tuesday, rose by $1.80, or 1.60%, to $114.58 per barrel as of 11:25 GMT. Meanwhile, the more active June contract fell by 32 cents, or 0.3%, to $107.07 per barrel.
US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May delivery rose by 64 cents, or 0.62%, to $103.52 per barrel at the same time.
Data from the London Stock Exchange Group showed that front-month Brent contracts are on track for a record monthly gain of about 58%, the largest since records began in June 1988. US crude has also risen about 54% this month, marking its biggest jump since May 2020.
Tuesday’s session saw significant volatility, with front-month Brent contracts moving within a wide range between gains of 2.5% and losses of 1.3% compared with Monday’s close.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump called on countries that did not support the United States in its coordinated strikes against Iran and are now unable to obtain jet fuel to buy US oil and head to the Hormuz Boğazı and “simply take it,” as he put it.
This post followed a Wall Street Journal report stating that Trump told his aides he is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the strait remains largely closed, with reopening to be addressed later.
The US president had also warned that the United States would “destroy” Iran’s energy facilities and oil fields unless Tehran reopens the waterway.
Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based SS WealthStreet Research, said that diplomatic signals remain mixed, but the situation on the ground suggests that uncertainty will persist. She added that repairing damaged infrastructure will take time even if de-escalation occurs, which will keep oil supplies tight.
Küresel enerji taşımacılığında riskler artıyor
In a sign of the risks facing seaborne energy supplies, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said on Tuesday that its crude oil tanker Al-Salmi, with a capacity of about two million barrels, was attacked by Iran while docked at a port in Dubai. Officials also warned of the risk of oil spills in the region.
At the same time, Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen launched missiles toward Israel on Saturday, raising concerns about potential disruptions to shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the waterway linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden for vessels traveling between Asia and Europe via the Suez Canal.
Data from Kpler showed that Saudi Arabia has rerouted its crude exports from the Gulf through this route, with about 4.658 milyon varil/gün being shipped to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, compared with an average of just 770 thousand varil/gün in January and February.
Analistler görüşü: arz kapasitesi sınırlı, baskı sürüyor
Lin Yi, Vice President of commodities and oil markets at Rystad Energy, said that remaining spare capacity in the oil market is being gradually absorbed, increasing the market’s vulnerability to a prolonged closure of the Hormuz Boğazı. He added that this means the world is moving closer to an actual shortage of oil supplies across a broader geographic range, which could further support upward momentum in oil prices in the coming period.